Nigel Farage has reportedly written to polling company YouGov accusing it of using “bizarre adjustments” to “suppress the true figures” about Reform UK’s support — after its latest survey put his party just four points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent, while rival pollsters have placed Reform as high as 30 per cent.

In his letter, Farage is said to have pointed to a consistent pattern across YouGov’s ten most recent polls, arguing that Reform’s ratings averaged five points lower than surveys carried out by other companies. “Political polling plays a significant role in shaping public perception, particularly on social media,” he wrote. “I would welcome a thorough explanation of what you believe accounts for the consistent discrepancy between your results and the rest of the polling industry.”

The Express understands YouGov has pushed back, arguing its methodology is more accurate precisely because it is designed to capture tactical voting — an increasingly significant feature of British elections.

The Express reached out to YouGov for comment via email.

What the data shows

According to a report by the Times, the company changed its approach during the 2024 general election campaign, introducing a two-question format that asks voters both how they would vote nationally and how they would vote in their own constituency. It is the answer to the second question that drives the final headline figure, on the basis that it better reflects the reality of how people actually vote when they step into the booth.

The approach has credibility behind it — YouGov correctly predicted Reform’s share of the vote at the last election using this method.

Figures released by YouGov covering five polls conducted between December and January confirm that Reform’s ratings are consistently lower on its surveys than on those of rival companies — and that the gap is directly explained by the difference between how voters answer its two questions. In other words, Reform supporters tell YouGov they would vote for the party nationally, but a meaningful number indicate they would vote differently in their own seat.

Expert view

Political analyst Peter Kellner told the Times that YouGov’s figures were “out of line” with those of other pollsters but said the divergence could be “explained by YouGov’s innovations in measuring voting intention,” adding that “competition in polling methods is a good thing.”

He urged caution about reading too much into any individual set of numbers. “As long as we understand what is being done, we can make sense of the figures and why pollsters differ, even as we acknowledge the element of uncertainty around individual percentages,” he said. Kellner praised the industry for its transparency, saying pollsters “should be applauded for their candour.”

Most polling companies have found that Reform’s support has eased back from the peaks it reached last autumn, regardless of methodology — a broader trend that complicates Farage’s argument that YouGov alone is responsible for the lower numbers.