Despite averaging a career-high 20.3 points per game last season with the Charlotte Hornets, Kelly Oubre Jr. remained unsigned on the free-agent market until mid-September. That’s when the Sixers snatched him up on a one-year, minimum-salary deal—and even that wasn’t universally viewed as a steal at the time.

It’s safe to say Oubre earned himself a lot more money this season. He was the Sixers’ fourth-leading scorer with 15.4 points per game, and he chipped in 5.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.7 blocks in 30.2 minutes per game as well. Head coach Nick Nurse also got him to buy in defensively, as evidenced by his best finish in defensive estimated plus/minus since 2020-21.

It’s unclear exactly how much Oubre can fetch in free agency this summer, though. ESPN’s Bobby Marks thinks he has the $8.0 million room mid-level exception “written all over him” (6:00 mark). If that’s the case, the Sixers should have zero problem retaining him. With that said, it only takes one team giving him an above-market offer to throw a wrench into that plan.

Luckily, the league’s new collective bargaining agreement allows teams to begin negotiating with their own free agents one day after the NBA Finals end. The Sixers should have at least a week to discuss the future with Oubre and the rest of their own free agents—aka, nearly their entire roster—before other teams are legally allowed to contact them. Because surely, no other teams tamper before free agency actually opens. Isn’t that right, Commissioner Silver?

The Sixers likely won’t want to commit to any of their own free agents before first exploring the trade and free-agent markets. They aren’t going to close off their opportunity to sign LeBron James or Paul George until they know they’re out of the running for both, even if they’re a long shot for either one. But they could come to terms on a relative framework with Oubre beforehand in case they have to pivot to a Plan B or C.

If Oubre is amenable to taking the room MLE, he can sign for up to two years. If he wants more than that, the Sixers can offer him up to a max salary as long as they carve out the requisite cap space. (They aren’t going to offer him a max salary.) If the two sides don’t agree to terms before free agency begins, Oubre can sign with another team and leave the Sixers empty-handed.

The Sixers are one of only five teams projected to have at least $40 million of cap space this summer, according to Keith Smith of Spotrac, along with the Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic, Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors. All four teams hope to be on the rise next year, but the Magic are the only one that made the playoffs this season. The Hornets, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs can carve out enough cap room to splash around in free agency as well.

While meeting with Oubre in late June, the Sixers should lay out the highest amount of money they’d be willing to spend to retain him. But if he’s amenable to delaying that big payday by a year and re-signing on a 1+1 deal for slightly less, he could help the Sixers maximize their chances of building a championship-caliber supporting cast around him, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid.

Since the Sixers signed Oubre in free agency last year, they only have non-Bird rights for him this offseason. If they decide to stay over the salary cap, they couldn’t give Oubre more than 120 percent of what he’s earning this season as the starting salary of his new deal unless they used some or all of their MLE to sign him.

If Oubre signs a two-year deal with a second-year player option, though, the Sixers would gain Early Bird rights for him next offseason. If he opted out, the Sixers could give him a new contract with a starting salary of either 175 percent of what he earned in 2024-25 or 105 percent of the league’s average salary, whichever is greater.

After the Milwaukee Bucks won a championship with Bobby Portis playing a key role in 2020-21, they convinced him to re-sign on a 1+1 deal via his non-Bird rights for $8.9 million in total. The following summer, he declined his $4.6 million player option and signed a four-year, $48.6 million contract via Early Bird rights—the most the Bucks were allowed to offer him.

The Los Angeles Clippers did the exact same thing with Nicolas Batum that same summer. After signing a one-year, minimum-salary deal with them in December 2020, Batum inked a 1+1 deal via his non-Bird rights worth $6.5 million in total during the 2021 offseason. One year later, Batum declined his $3.3 million player option and signed a two-year, $22 million deal—which later turned him into valuable salary ballast in the James Harden trade, ironically.

Since the Sixers can carve out significant cap space this summer, they could run a modified version of that same playbook. If Oubre signed a two-year deal via the room MLE, the Sixers could offer him a four-year, $62.8 million contract next summer with a starting salary of $14.0 million. If he wanted more than that, the Sixers could sign him to a slightly larger contract this summer—say, a two-year, $20 million deal?—and he’d be eligible for a four-year, $78.4 million deal in 2025.

That might sound like a hefty price to pay for a 28-year-old who shot only 31.1 percent from three-point range this year. Unlike Maxey, who seemingly levels up every year, it’s unrealistic to expect Oubre to drastically reshape his game to become a high-level, high-efficiency three-point shooter. Then again, his willingness to take them alone differentiates himself from some of his (soon-to-be former) teammates.

Oubre never shied away from challenging the rim this season, no matter who stood in his path. His off-ball cutting added an element to the Sixers’ offense that they’ve lacked in recent years, and that helped Embiid set a career high with 5.6 assists per game this season. The Sixers should unquestionably want him back at the right price, and he sounds open to a reunion as well.

By pushing off Oubre’s larger deal until 2025 via his Early Bird rights, the Sixers would be doing the same thing with him that they did when they pushed off signing Maxey to an extension. Rather than paying Oubre $17.5 million off the bat, for instance, the Sixers could pay him $10 million in 2024-25 and then begin his $17.5 million contract in 2025-26. In doing so, they’d be creating an additional $7.5 million in cap space this summer that they otherwise wouldn’t have.

To be clear: The Sixers absolutely cannot put the promise of a future contract in writing. The NBA would rain down holy hellfire on them. (Just ask the Minnesota Timberwolves about Joe Smith.) Oubre would have to accept the risk of them potentially going back on a hefty new contract in 2025 if things go south next season. At least no star player has publicly accused the Sixers’ lead executive of being a liar recently or anything.

Portis and Batum had to make that same choice with the Bucks and Clippers, and both decided to stay with their respective teams. They were both rewarded justly the following offseason.

The Sixers could just sign Oubre to a longer-term deal with their cap space this summer. But if they instead convince him to sign a 1+1 contract before he inks a bigger deal in 2025, they’d log another on-the-margins win that could pay off immensely down the road.